Judul : 25 marginal seats Theresa May is set to grab in a general election landslide
link : 25 marginal seats Theresa May is set to grab in a general election landslide
25 marginal seats Theresa May is set to grab in a general election landslide
Matt Cardy / Getty
LONDON — UK opinion polls and the recent local election results, suggest that the Conservatives are on course to win dozens of seats from Labour and other parties in a landslide general election win for Prime Minister Theresa May.
The size of the Tory lead means that many seats which have been held by Labour for decades are suddenly up for grabs.
Many of these seats are in former and current Labour heartlands in the North, Wales and London.
Below is a list of the top 25 Tory seats most likely to be won by the Conservatives, based on the size of the ‘swing’ needed for the Conservatives to take them.
Scroll down to see which seats May is most hoping to grab and which seats Labour could save if they can convince relatively small numbers of non-Tory voters to vote tactically for them.
Chester
Held by: Labour’s Chris Matheson
Majority: 93
Conservative swing needed: 0.09%
Conservative candidate: Will Gallagher
Chester is the UK’s most marginal Tory target seat with just 93 votes separating them from victory in 2015. Long held by the Conservatives, it was won by Labour in Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide, only to return to the Tories under Cameron in 2010, before swinging back to Labour in 2015. Based on current polling this is set to be won with a large majority by Theresa May’s party in June.
Ealing Central and Acton
Held by: Labour’s Rupa Huq
Majority: 274
Conservative swing needed: 0.27%
Conservative candidate: Joy Morrissey
Almost half of the top 20 seats the Conservatives hope to win in this election are in London and Theresa May has already made several campaign stops here. Ealing, which was won by the Conservatives in 2010, only to narrowly fall to Labour in 2015, should be an easy take for the party, particularly given that the local Liberal Democrats have rejected suggestions by Vince Cable to stand aside in a ‘progressive alliance’ with Labour.
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Held by: SNP’s Calum Kerr
Majority: 328
Conservative swing needed: 0.3%
Conservative candidate: John Lamont
The huge rise in support for the Conservatives in Scotland under the leadership of Ruth Davidson means they could win a handful of seats from the Scottish nationalists in June. The most likely to fall is Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk in the Scottish borders.
Brentford and Isleworth
Held by: Labour’s Ruth Cadbury
Majority: 465
Conservative swing needed: 0.41%
Conservative candidate: Mary Macleod
Another Labour London marginal that should fall easily to the Conservatives, based on current opinion polling, is Brentford and Isleworth in suburban West London. The seat was previously held by Conservative MP Mary Macleod in 2010-15 and she is overwhelmingly likely to regain the seat in June.
Halifax
Held by: Labour’s Holly Lynch
Majority: 465
Conservative swing needed: 0.41%
Conservative candidate: Chris Pearson
Winning relatively affluent seats like Halifax in Yorkshire, was crucial to Labour’s victories in 1997 and onwards. The seat, which was won by Lynch after the previous Labour incumbent Linda Riordan stood down in 2015, should fall easily to the Conservatives under May.
Wirral West
Held by: Labour’s Margaret Greenwood
Majority: 417
Conservative swing needed: 0.5%
Conservative candidate in 2017: Tony Caldeira
Labour’s defeat of then Conservative MP Esther McVey in Wirral in the North West, was one of the few bright spots for the party in an otherwise dismal night in 2015. The seat, which until 2015 was considered a “bellweather” seat which voted the same way as the country as a whole, is now highly likely to fall back to the Conservatives.
Ilford North
Held by: Labour’s Wes Streeting
Majority: 589
Conservative swing needed: 0.6%
Conservative candidate in 2017: Lee Scott
Labour’s Wes Streeting, who won Ilford North from the Conservatives in 2015, has been a very active member of the party’s intake over the past two years and a vocal critic of Jeremy Corbyn. However, none of this is likely to save him next month with only a tiny swing needed for the Conservatives to win this seat back.
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Held by: Labour’s Paul Farrelly
Majority: 650
Conservative swing needed: 0.76%
Conservative candidate in 2017: Owen Meredith
Newcastle-under-Lyme, in the Potteries, has been held by Labour since 2019 but has been highly marginal ever since 2010 when the Conservatives came within 1600 votes of beating Labour. The constituency’s MP, Paul Farrelly, was one of the few Labour MPs to vote against triggering Article 50, despite an estimated 63% of his constituents voting to leave the EU. UKIP’s decision not to stand here makes it even more likely that the Conservatives will win.
Barrow and Furness
Held by: Labour’s John Woodcock
Majority: 795
Conservative swing needed: 0.92%
Conservative candidate in 2017: Simon Fell
Labour’s recent defeat in the Copeland by-election is likely to be repeated in nearby Barrow and Furness where the party’s MP John Woodcock is holding onto a wafer-thin majority over the Conservatives.
In recent weeks he has distanced himself from the national party and its unpopular leader Jeremy Corbyn, saying that he “would not countenance ever voting to make Jeremy Corbyn Britain’s Prime Minister.” You can read our recent interview with Woodcock here. However, with the defence and nuclear industry dominating the area, Corbyn’s position on both these issues is highly likely to cost Woodcock his seat in what was once a Labour heartland.
Wolverhampton South West
Held by: Labour’s Rob Marris
Majority: 801
Conservative swing needed: 1%
Conservative candidate in 2017: Paul Uppal
The Conservatives have high hopes of taking this seat, evidenced by Theresa May already making one campaign stop here. The West Midlands seat is a mixture of more deprived inner city wards and very suburban and relatively affluent Tory-leaning suburbs. The collapse of UKIP’s vote alone should be enough to see the Conservatives over the line here in June.
Hampstead and Kilburn
Held by: Labour’s Tulip Siddiq
Majority: 1,138
Conservative swing needed: 1.05%
Conservative candidate in 2017: Claire-Louise Leyland
A Labour seat since its creation in 2010, this mostly affluent West London seat was previously a three-way marginal until the collapse of the Liberal Democrats following their coalition with the Tories. Its current occupant, Tulip Siddiq is an impressive figure who is seen as a rising star in the party. However, the surge in support for both the Tories and the Lib Dems since 2015, plus Labour’s decline in support post-Corbyn, should be enough for the Tories to make another London gain.
Enfield North
Held by: Labour’s Joan Ryan
Majority: 1,086
Conservative swing needed: 1.18%
Conservative candidate in 2017: Nick de Bois
Another suburban London seat set to be claimed by the Tories is Enfield North. This is the most northernmost constituency in the city and is relatively affluent and almost rural in parts. The Labour incumbent Joan Ryan has little hope of clinging on if the national polls are in any way accurate. This looks like a sure thing for former Conservative MP Nick de Bois.
Hove
Held by: Labour’s Peter Kyle
Majority: 1,236
Conservative swing needed: 1.18%
Conservative candidate in 2017: Kristy Adams
Hove is another marginal seat that was once long-held by the Conservatives only to be won over by Labour in the late 90s. After a brief return to the Tories in 2010, Peter Kyle narrowly won the seat back in 2015. With just a 1% swing needed, the Conservatives should have little trouble turning Hove blue again.
Dewsbury
Held by: Labour’s Paula Sherriff
Majority: 1,451
Conservative swing needed: 1.35%
Conservative candidate in 2017: Beth Prescott
Another ultra-marginal seat likely to topple in June is Dewsbury in West Yorkshire, currently held by Labour’s Paula Sherriff. Sherriff won the seat from the Conservatives’ Simon Reevell in 2015. A hard-working newcomer to the House of Commons, Sherriff last year became the first opposition MP to get a budget amendment passed by the government, following her campaign on the ‘tampon tax’. She faces a tough battle to hold the seat against the Conservatives’ Beth Prescott.
Southport
Held by: Liberal Democrat’s John Pugh
Majority: 1,451
Conservative swing needed: 1.5%
Conservative candidate in 2017: Beth Prescott
Much has been made of the rise in support for the Liberal Democrats since the EU referendum. However, the even bigger rise in support for the Conservatives means that the Lib Dems could actually lose a handful of their existing seats to the Tories in June. The biggest Lib-Con marginal on the Conservative target list is Southport in Merseyside, where the blues need just a 3% swing to win back the seat, last held by the party in 1992. The Lib Dems will hope that the constituency, where 54% of people are estimated to have voted for Remain in the Brexit referendum, will hold on.
Lancaster and Fleetwood
Held by: Labour’s Cat Smith
Majority: 1,265
Conservative swing needed: 1.52%
Conservative candidate in 2017: Eric Ollerenshaw
For fairly obvious reasons, few of Corbyn’s big parliamentary supporters hold marginal seats. One exception is Labour’s MP for Lancaster and Fleetwood, Cat Smith. The North West MP currently serves as Corbyn’s Shadow Cabinet on the issue Voter Engagement and Youth Affairs. She will be soon be putting her success at winning over young voters to the test.
Carshalton and Wallington
Held by: Lib Dem’s Tom Brake
Majority: 1,510
Conservative swing needed: 1.59%
Conservative candidate in 2017: Matthew Maxwell-Scott
Another Lib Dem seat that may fall to the Conservatives is Carshalton and Wallington in suburban South West London. The seat was won from the Tories by Tom Brake in 1997 but now looks ripe for the taking for Theresa May, particularly as a majority of voters in the constituency voted to leave the EU, in opposition to Lib Dem policy. However, a recent YouGov London poll suggests that the Lib Dems are doing better in the capital than elsewhere. Whether this will be enough for Brake to hold on remains to be seen.
Derbyshire North East
Held by: Labour’s Natascha Engel
Majority: 1,883
Conservative swing needed: 1.96%
Conservative candidate in 2017: Lee Rowley
Derbyshire North East has been held by Labour since the 1930s and has been served by Natascha Engel since 2005. The seat has become increasingly marginal however, with the Tories just 2,000 votes behind in 2015. With UKIP winning 7,600 votes last time, their subsequent collapse should easily be enough to swing this seat to the blues.
Harrow West
Held by: Labour’s Gareth Thomas
Majority: 2,208
Conservative swing needed: 2.37%
Conservative candidate in 2017: Hannah David
Harrow West is another affluent London suburb which was won over by Labour under Tony Blair and which the Conservatives now believe they can win back. Theresa May visited the seat herself on Monday.
Bridgend
Held by: Labour’s Madeleine Moon
Majority: 1,927
Conservative swing needed: 2.44%
Conservative candidate in 2017: Karen Robson
Bridgend is the first target seat for the Conservatives in Wales. The constituency which sits on the South West coast hasn’t been won by the Tories since Michael Foot was leading Labour in 1983. With Corbyn currently leading Labour to a similarly bad defeat, the Tories believe they can repeat their same success from over 30 years ago. However, the decision to impose an outsider candidate, Karen Robson, has seriously ruffled feathers among local Tories.
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
Held by: Labour’s Tom Blenkinsop (not standing again)
Majority: 2,268
Conservative swing needed: 2.48%
Conservative candidate in 2017: Simon Clarke
This north Yorkshire seat is typical of the decline in Labour’s support in the North East, where the party did particularly badly in the recent local and mayoral elections. The seat has been held by Labour since its creation in 1997 but now looks likely to fall to the Tories. The current MP Tom Blenkinsop has blamed Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn for the party’s decline in the area. Referring to a recently lost council-by election in the area, he said: “We lost due to the leader’s name being mentioned on the doorstep as the reason why residents were not voting Labour. And I am certain this is not just the case here but across boroughs and constituencies the length and breadth of Great Britain.”
Westminster North
Held by: Labour’s Karen Buck
Majority: 1,977
Conservative swing needed: 2.5%
Conservative candidate in 2017: Lindsey Hall
This inner London seat has been held by Labour ever since its current formation in 2010, but was previously held, under less Labour-friendly boundaries, by the Conservatives through the 80s and 90s. This is another key London target for the Tories.
Walsall North
Held by: Labour’s David Winnick
Majority: 1,937
Conservative swing needed: 2.63%
Conservative candidate in 2017: Eddie Hughes
Walsall North is another West Midlands seat that the Tories have their eyes on. Aside from the 1976 by-election when the Conservatives briefly gained the seat, Walsall has been held by Labour ever since the seat was created in 1955. A former manufacturing town, this should be an easy hold for Labour in opposition. However Labour’s dreadful national polling means the Tories are currently strong favourites to win the seat.
Tooting
Held by: Labour’s Dr Rosena Allin-Khan
Majority: 2,842
Conservative swing needed: 2.65%
Conservative candidate in 2017: Dan Watkins
An inner London seat that was, until he became London mayor, held by Sadiq Khan, Tooting is still best known for being the setting for 70s sitcom “Citizen Smith” which poked fun at a particular type of young London working class far-left radicals. In recent years the seat has become more gentrified however and the Conservative candidate Dan Watkins believes he can take it at his third attempt. Hoping to stop him will be Labour’s Dr. Rosena Allin-Khan who won the seat in a by-election just last year. Sadiq Khan has been on the campaign trail for Allin-Khan in recent weeks.
Wrexham
Held by: Labour’s Ian Lucas
Majority: 1,831
Conservative swing needed: 2.80%
Conservative candidate in 2017: Andrew Atkinson
Wrexham in North Wales, is a former heavy industry area which has been held by Labour ever since the 1930s. However, in recent years the area has moved away from heavy industry and also from the Labour party. Labour’s majority in the seat has now dwindled to just 5%. In what could be a precursor to the general election, Tory candidate Andrew Atkinson, took Gwesyllt ward in the constituency from Labour with 73% of the vote in the May local elections.
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