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Here comes GDP …

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The Commerce Department will release its second estimate of first-quarter US GDP at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Economists estimate that gross domestic product rose 0.9%, improved from the advance estimate of 0.7% that was based on incomplete data.

The first reading was the slowest pace in three years. Personal consumption, which was a big drag in the first quarter, is expected to print at 0.4% versus 0.3% prior, according to Bloomberg.

Economists are split on the extent to which the slowdown was caused by weak consumer spending, or by residual seasonality — a statistical quirk that has distorted the real pace of first-quarter growth throughout this recovery.

For example, in minutes of the Federal Reserve’s May meeting released on Wednesday, staff members judged that the weakness reflected soft consumer spending and inventory investment, not residual seasonality. However, Fed participants who decide on monetary policy thought seasonality at least played a role.

“Our GDP tracking model suggests that the weakness in Q1 2017 spending is attributable to components other than those that previously exhibited strong residual seasonality in the old vintage data,” Nomura economists said in a note.

“More important, some hard data such as motor vehicle sales, energy output, and inventories came in on the weak side in recent months. Taking this development into account, we think that most of the recent weakness in the spending data reflects the underlying trend of the economy as opposed to technical measurement issues.”

Growth is expected to rebound in the second quarter.

More to come …

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